Love Green Bay giving only 3

Discussion in 'GarryP's Trojan Huddle' started by flyfishintrojan, Jan 21, 2021.

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  2. SGVFlip

    SGVFlip Points Member


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    #2
    Yeah, that looks like a great bet....
     
  3. GoSC27!

    GoSC27! Points Member


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    #4
    If TB did not score before the half it may have been a different outcome. Lafleur also should have went for it on the last drive versus opting for a field goal, but again that TD before the half was a killer!
    Fight On!
     
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  4. KeenObserver

    KeenObserver Junior Member


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    #6
    Did you go big...or will you tell us how you gained wisdom before the game to call off the bet?
     
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  5. flyfishintrojan

    flyfishintrojan Junior Member


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    #7
    After that end of the half TD, I bet GB to win the 2nd half, so I got lucky and only lost the vig.

    That end of half TD killed my OB.
     
    Last edited: Jan 24, 2021
  6. mrsocal

    mrsocal Points Member


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    #8
    That's why I don't bet anymore. There's no such thing as a stone cold lock. If you think you found one, bet the opposite. LOL
     
    ca4usc likes this.
  7. PickSicx

    PickSicx Junior Member


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    #9
    By "giving only 3", I thought you meant kicking that FG with 2:05 left in the game, and effectively surrendering to Tampa Bay.

    That was, arguably, one of the dumbest coaching moves I've seen since Helton did the Running Man. Clearly Rodgers was pissed about that decision when they interviewed him after the game.
     
  8. flyfishintrojan

    flyfishintrojan Junior Member


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    #10
    Says the boy whose mom still diapers him.
     
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  9. flyfishintrojan

    flyfishintrojan Junior Member


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    #11
    And now online betting sites are moving to handle everything in bitcoins, which I don’t understand, so my gambling days could well be over.
     
  10. AMLTrojan

    AMLTrojan Junior Member


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    #12
    I admit to being surprised at the time, but after thinking it through, I saw it as not cut-and-dry. You're weighing the odds of the following scenarios:
    - Score on 4th down from 8 yards out and make the subsequent 2-pt play
    - Score on 4th down and miss the 2-pt play
    - Fail to score, turn the ball over on downs
    - Make the FG
    - Miss the FG, turn the ball over on downs
    Whichever path occurs, all scenarios include TB getting the ball back with just over 2 minutes to play, GB has all 3 timeouts plus the 2-minute warning (the exception to this is if GB scores and goes for an onside kick and recovers).

    From what I've seen, the analytics very slightly favor going for it on 4th down there, probably because worst-case scenario you have TB starting from inside their own 10-yard line. But I'd hardly call it "cut-and-dry" because all you're doing by kicking the FG is putting your team in position to have a pretty good chance to try to win it if you can force the 3-and-out -- a very common end-of-game scenario.

    I think the bigger coaching sin here was that LaFleur was apparently not on the same page as Rodgers, who said that he assumed he had 4th down in his pocket and would have played differently had he known he only had 3 downs to work with.
     
  11. flyfishintrojan

    flyfishintrojan Junior Member


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    #13
    Which quite frankly makes no sense. you play to score or get a first down. Rodgers had
    clear sailing to at least a 1st down by keeping it.
     
  12. SC87

    SC87 Points Member


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    #14
    What a contrast between the Rams and Tampa D. The Rams couldn't lay a finger on Rodgers the entire game and couldn't stop the GB running game. Tampa sacked him five times and pressured him something like 22 times. Rodgers was running for his life. Granted the injury to Donald was huge but it was a night and day performance for the GB O-line. And terrible coaching. How do they let a WR get behind them on the last play of first half for a TD? Then kick a FG with the MVP QB available needing 8 points to tie the game.
     
  13. zitorocks

    zitorocks Junior Member


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    #15
    Absolutely a head scratcher, almost as much as why Rodgers threw the ball on 3rd down when he had a clear space to run the ball to the end zone. That was his idiotic decision. Yet he thinks he should be mentioned with Brady as the GOAT? Please....Aaron, you are 1-4 in NFC championship games now.
     
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  14. AMLTrojan

    AMLTrojan Junior Member


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    #16
    Not sure what you're talking about here. The series in question (i.e. GB's last offensive series) ended inside the 10-yard line -- there was no chance of Rodgers gaining a 1st down.
     
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  15. AMLTrojan

    AMLTrojan Junior Member


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    #17
    Yes it looks that way from the main camera angle. I can only guess Rodgers didn't think he could outrun the middle-zone defender (or was scared of being injured on the tackle) and instead thought he could squeeze that pass in to his receiver. I doubt he scores if he continues his scramble, but he probably gets pretty close before being tripped up or tackled. Totally different 4th down decision ~2 yards out vs. 8 yards out.
     
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  16. KeenObserver

    KeenObserver Junior Member


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    #18
    That’s your come back?

    Vegas has name for people like you. Losers
     
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  17. GoSC27!

    GoSC27! Points Member


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    #19
    As much as Tom Brady got the majority of the press, the credit belongs to Bowles and his defense. He shut down Brees the week before. Thomas has zero catches, and he found creative ways to pressure Rodgers. The Super Bowl could be a low scoring game because both defenses have looked good. I never imagined TB slowing down both the Saints and Green Bay’s offenses! I also was shocked how the Bills offense was neutralized. It was really the Tyler Bass show for the Bills!
    Fight On!
     
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  18. flyfishintrojan

    flyfishintrojan Junior Member


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    #20
    This time they do, no doubt about it. Of course you don ‘t bet anything, you’re such a pantywaist, so you aren’t a winner or loser( well you are a loser in myriad other ways) so there is that.
     

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