LA Mayor Says CV-19 could halt L.A. sporting events until 2021

Discussion in 'GarryP's Trojan Huddle' started by PacTrojan, Apr 15, 2020.

  1. Sam Bam

    Sam Bam Junior Member


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    Apr 16, 2020
    #81
    because it's a pdf I had to use google translate and it did a terrible job especially with the formatting not a big deal.
     
  2. KeenObserver

    KeenObserver Junior Member


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    #82
    Ok you’ve have completely reached total idiot status. Congratulations. Why are so many uneducated people so willing to give up their rights and liberty to a bunch of polticians?
     
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  3. Ojaitrojan

    Ojaitrojan Points Member


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    #83
    Actually, the car mortality rate is a perfect example of the behavior of others impacting you. The vast majority of vehicle deaths involve two cars. Yet you drive, despite knowing that the poor decisions other drivers make could kill you.
     
  4. PacTrojan

    PacTrojan Junior Member


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    #84
    Not according to this information
    https://bao.arcgis.com/covid-19/jhu/county/06037.html
     
  5. uscvball

    uscvball Junior Member


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    #85
    The entire country has heard of flu shots and yet every year only half the country chooses to get them. Getting a vaccine against an unheard of virus supported by unknown facts and statistics, with a vaccine that will be somewhat unproven isn't going to change that take rate. If anything it will likely go down.
    That last poll result was 2 weeks ago. Different parts of the country are on different rules for lockdown. The places under most severe restrictions are going to give you a different result over time.

    What do you think would happen if you asked those same people if they would be willing to go back to work if it meant a more secure future for their children and grandchildren?
     
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  6. uscvball

    uscvball Junior Member


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    #86
    Just under 20% of patients with covid require hospitalization and not all of those need an ICU bed. There is not going to be a time where all hospital beds or ICU beds are in use.

    What's sad is those beds will also not be needed for the patients who end up with psychological issues as a result of being locked down or the resulting physiological impacts to the body from all of the stress and not being able to buy food or put a roof over your house due to unemployment.

    What do you think the death rate will be for those people? What will be the poverty and hunger rate for those families and children whose parents have lost their job and probably won't have a job waiting once things start to open up? What about all the kids who are at home and whose parents are not facilitating a continuing education? What about the seniors who are at home alone and dying a slow lonely death? There is no longer a good reason to continue isolating ourselves at home when the long term impacts are clearly going to be much much worse.
     
  7. PacTrojan

    PacTrojan Junior Member


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    #87
    The issue is determining the Population at Risk - to use the epidemiological term. For LA County with a population of 10 million, without wide spread testing this is the current unknown. For example if 90% already have CV-19 but don't have symptoms, then you're only worried about 1 million new infections and the 20% of that needing hospitalization... flip the construct the other way, 10% have CV-19 you have a population of 9 million at risk with 20% of that going to the hospital. So diseases have populations at risk that are naturally smaller than the population as a whole (ex. STDs given that whole population is not sexually active). COVID-19 does not appear to have such limits - research may prove otherwise but for now is seems that if someone gets exposed and there's a biological uptake of the virus they will contract it with varying severity of illness. Look at the aircraft carrier Roosevelt - at least 10% of the crew has tested positive. What's more alarming is 40 sailors who originally tested negative have now tested positive since the ship docked in Guam. That's after all the cleaning and precautions put in place on the ship - which may point to ease of transmissibility of CV-19.
     
  8. DJ4SC

    DJ4SC Junior Member


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    #88

    There's always the article.

    The point being that this study shows the virus runs its course no matter what we do and as I said earlier, it was here long before our tyrannical leaders in this state decided to abuse their powers.
    Those who are in the danger category need to take precautions as needed but the rest of us need to get back to doing what we do before this gets so bad nothing will stop the economic disaster that awaits.
     
  9. Buck Dancer

    Buck Dancer Points Member


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    #89
    Really? So when a car accident occurs does that then cause 4 other accidents which then causes 16 other accidents which then causes 64 other accidents......Perfect example of you inability to grasp the situation. BTW this is OT drivel and should all be removed. I will flag your post, my post, and all related posts. This is a football forum.
     
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  10. Tod78

    Tod78 Junior Member


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    Apr 17, 2020
    #90
    FWIW, even Trump has given up on reopening everything immediately. The White House “reopening guidelines” have reopening dependent on the spread of the virus and opening in phases over time. Sports events open last in phase three.

    https://apps.npr.org/documents/document.html?id=6840714-Guidelines

    Granted, Trump may not have read his own White House guidelines....
     
  11. DJ4SC

    DJ4SC Junior Member


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    #91

    Geebus, NPR? Really?

    Come on and think for yourself. The Constitution clearly states that the governors have the power to run their states until that affects the Republic as a whole. Trump's not giving up, he's allowing these leftist power hungry hacks enough rope to hang themselves in the hopes that their minions will wake up and see this for what it is.

    The threat is over.

    https://twitter.com/LotusOak2/status/1251043604728029184
     
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  12. SouthbayTrojan91

    SouthbayTrojan91 Junior Member


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    #92
    If it was that easy, don't you think those infected would be a lot more than 10%? They are all "locked down" in a confined space, breathing the same air.
     
  13. uscvball

    uscvball Junior Member


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    #93
    The virus has already determined 98% or better, the population at risk. Age, underlying illness, obesity, smokers, drinkers, diabetes, hypertension. If someone fits any of those categories, they should stay home or take maximum precautions. The rest of us? Need to live our lives.

    What is the percent of false outcomes on those negative tests?
    Is that what he did? Give up? Or did he tell the states to govern? You know, do their job and be held accountable to the citizens they supposedly serve. And remember, CA's governor created and mandated his own guidelines without federal mandate so clearly, he seems fine with being a cowboy when he chooses to.

    We are living under a really stupid, thoughtless, world right now. The police in Malibu are arresting surfers and breaking up AA meetings, hiking paths are blocked off, but nobody gives a shit when grocery shoppers bump into each other at the store. Domestic violence and child abuse are increasing with no more room at shelters. Abusers have the perfect set up....victims are isolated by law! Alcohol sales are up in some categories by over 300%. Unemployment is reaching Depression level and somehow you think people WANT to stay home?

    Let's say there is no vaccine for over 18 months. Are you willing to sit inside for that long?
     
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  14. Lucky

    Lucky Points Member


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    Apr 17, 2020
    #94
    There will be one or more effective treatments in the near term. Current rules are a way to prevent what happened in Italy and Spain before they got serious. As an aside given how easily this is transmitted having a hundred players in a locker room and on the field in games may not be the best thing for their health but then again who cares about them.
     
  15. uscvball

    uscvball Junior Member


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    #95
    Really? What is near term?

    How easily is it transmitted? The answer is, nobody really knows. Everyone isn't under the same rules, some are far more Draconian, and everyone isn't following the rules. I said nothing about football players or other athletes. However, since none of the public will be in the locker rooms, if guidelines allow players to do so, I believe in their right to choose that locker room.
     
  16. 3rd Slide

    3rd Slide Junior Member


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    #96
    Essentially shows the same data with the exception of number of beds. But thanks, that's helpful.

    The main point remains the same. Out of a population of 10mm, only 0.11% have been confirmed and, more importantly, only 0.0045% have died from it. Way less than the number of beds. What I'd really be interested in seeing is what % of the deaths are over 80 years old and/or had underlying health issues - if it's the 95% as attributed to the CDC, then we've only had approximately 23 deaths (0.0002%) in LA County who aren't 80+ or have an underlying health issue.

    Being under 80 with no underlying health issues, I have to believe my odds of dying from this are lower than getting hit by a car.

    Time to use some common sense and get back to work, assuming you're under 80 and don't have underlying health issues, that is.
     
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  17. 3rd Slide

    3rd Slide Junior Member


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    #97
    Got curious and looked it up. City of LA had 236 deaths from auto accidents, 76 of which were pedestrians. In other words, there were 3 times the number of deaths from people crossing the street in LA last year than there are from the coronavirus this year for those under 80 without health issues.
     
  18. KeenObserver

    KeenObserver Junior Member


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    #98
    Ban walking...Glad you found that.
     
  19. denali15

    denali15 Points Member


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    #99
    You can't get a straight answer as to what "current rules" are intended to do.

    We were told that the idea wasn't to save lives--and the rules haven't saved any lives--but to spread out the pain. Instead of getting this over with in 60-90 days, the idea was to spread out the cases and deaths over, say, 18 months, so that hospitals wouldn't be overwhelmed.

    Turns out that policy was based on horseshit "models" and dire predictions of COVID's mortality. We now know that the mortality might be less even than a typical flu, something we don't shut down the country for. In fact, "flattening" may result in more deaths, not fewer.

    Outside of nursing homes and NYC, almost nobody is dying. But once a bureaucracy gets full of itself, it can't remember why it made the decisions it made.

    So we imposed a depression that will take years to recover from, added perhaps 10T to the debt, ruined lives (someone today suggested that as many an 80% of restaurants might not re-open)...for basically no reason.
     
  20. Boselli

    Boselli Junior Member

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    None of this can make any sense without an understanding of COVID-19 uncertainty principle: The uncertainty principle implies that it is in general not possible to predict the value of a quantity with arbitrary certainty, even if all initial conditions are specified in an election year.
     

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