What if CV doesn’t go away after flu season

What would you consider to be a death toll, in what time period, that would make you sit up and take notice?

For example, the seasonal flu kills roughly 61,000 people a year.

Claiming that there are 1MM people currently infected indicates the average person doesn't do exponential math over time in their head very well.

 

You're not in a high risk cohort, so you say. But no regard for those that are at risk you come into contact with? Nor the medical resources you're potential straining because you don't feel you, personally, are at risk?

Also, I wouldn't be so sure you're so safe. France currently has 300 critical cases. 150 of them are under 50 years old. I'm sure you'll say those are all obese smokers with a host other comorbidities. Just to be clear, critical condition equates to someone that needs to be on a ventilator, likely has ARDS and isn't just going to get better after four weeks. They're going to be permanently impaired.

 

Best to have stopped after the first quoted sentence. Do you really believe the WHO and CDC would make this shit up? We must have missed the enormous convention all the public health officials held where they discussed having a mass, and I do mean MASS, conspiracy to bring down Trumps presidency.

 

Panic has created a great time to buy blue chip stocks

 

It might go a lot lower.

Too bad Mark Haines, CNBC , isn't still alive, as he correctly called the March 2009 market bottom. Maybe he could have done it again.

 

I will confirm for you again since you seemed to be missing something. I am not in a high-risk category for serious complications due to COVID 19.

Reading comprehension is just as important as exponential math.

-"I am an almost obsessive hand washer. If I have a fever or other active symptoms of the flu, I stay home as it is."

-I also quoted the US Surgeon General...."Caution is appropriate. Preparedness is appropriate. Panic is not."

-"am doing what is common sense and what we have been asked"

Clearly I have regard. I use common sense just as I do during the seasonal flu season and I am doing what has been asked with social distancing. Although it is tough to do that when simply buying groceries as the stores were packed. I saw MANY elderly people at the grocery store yesterday and I kept my distance but they needed help.

Just to make certain, I did a search. I haven't used the word "safe" on this forum since February 11th and it had nothing to do with CV.

I did however, acknowledge, "Yes, it's serious."

I don't know what their underlying health is and most of that info isn't/hasn't been collected from any place other than China and even there it was post-mortem. Patients are triaged with little consideration to underlying issues. 30% of the French population smokes regularly and that makes for 13 million smokers. They should be worried.

Also, "Based on World Health Organization (WHO) data published in 2014, 23.9% of French adults (age 18+) were clinically obese with a body mass index (BMI) of 30 or greater. The data showed the incidence of obesity in French women in 2014 was 24.0% and among French men 23.8%. Overall adult obesity rates in France were significantly ahead of the Netherlands at 19.8%, Germany at 20.1% and Italy at 21.0%." Approximately 10% of French citizens have diabetes. That's another kicker.

Why is France's recovery rate so far behind South Korea's? There are obviously differences to how CV was approached and handled. I do find it interesting that you have flat out said that half of all the under-50 patients currently on a ventilator are going to be permanently "impaired". Where do you get that from?

Intentionally? No. However, the WHO was criticized and they admitted to a less-than-stellar response in communicating about Swine Flu. They fomented panic and fear. All entities are capable of error, including the CDC and the WHO. In fact, if the CDC had simply agreed to use the testing kits China had been using, testing would have started earlier. Instead they insisted on making their own, rushing them out, only to find they weren't reliable.

 

Consider yourself slapped by the y-changed gate keeper.
You have no common sense.
You have a reading comprehension problem
The pugnacious girl wants to fight and has no idea how to discuss anything with anyone who disagrees with her without demeaning them.. but I could be wrong about this.

 

It’s all about common since, that’s all. Stupidity never got you anything, so practice safe hygiene

 

You’re probably the only one who took time to listen to it. It’s sobering but hopeful. There is no such thing as too much information in something like this. As long as the information is based on good science.

 

Back to the OP, COVID-19 will be with us for a while, and since it's 10x deadlier than influenza, we can expect vaccines and other preventative measures to tamp down the long-term dangers of this virus. But that is likely not until the fall, and hopefully the warmer weather will slow its spread until then. For the next few weeks, this is all about containment and mitigation to ensure the healthcare system doesn't collapse. I hesitate to guess what April and May will look like until we get better data and see how things play out with the extreme measures just put in place, but I don't see things magically going back to normal by then.

 

https://www.newsweek.com/newt-gingrich-i-am-italy-amid-coronavirus-crisis-america-must-act-now-act-big-opinion-1492270

"The hardest-hit region around Milan has had to improvise as its health system has been deeply stressed by the sheer number of patients. In Milan and Brescia, field hospitals have been set up in the fairgrounds as the local hospitals have been drowned in patients.

Because the demand for respirators and intensive care has been beyond any previous planning, doctors have been forced into the kind of triage thinking developed for intense battlefield casualty situations. There are reports that emergency room doctors are allotting respirators to those with higher life expectancy due to the limited equipment in the hardest hit areas of the province. If you are older or have other illnesses, you may simply not be eligible for treatment."

Save for the retards buying up truckloads of TP, America is not overreacting. We're doing the right thing. It's no different than prompting evacuations in the face of a category 5 hurricane, even when the hurricane is likely to weaken or veer away prior to landfall. Except in this case, epidemiologists don't have nice visuals like satellite radar imagery to make you all believe the threat is real.

 

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/watch-i-didnt-do-it-trump-says-of-disbanding-pandemics-office

Alcindor: “You did disband the White House pandemic office...”

trump: “...I think it’s a nasty question...I didn’t do it...I could ask, perhaps, my administration. I don’t know anything about it.”

Awesome leadership and taking responsibility from our country’s “leader”. Either trump doesn’t know what decisions and actions his administration has made and taken on important issues (really bad and irresponsible of him) or he does and he disbanded the pandemic office leaving us woefully unprepared with regard to a proper response to a pandemic (just as bad and irresponsible).

Dump the lying trump chump.

 

From Twitter:

 

Yeah, that’s sooo crazy that this president is listening to top public health and medical experts and slowly shutting the country down

maybe look into the incubation period of H1N1 vs Covid-19 and learn what that means with regard to its spread/danger and the risk poses before posing nonsense from fake news sites. Oh, let me guess: you know more than all of the health experts.

 

Why dont you all stop this shit.
We have a pandemic on the globe we "know nothing about" and we will not KNOW until all the data is in few years from now.
The libs and cons are trying to make this about (or to defend) Trump.
Don't you see how fucking stupid you are being?
Pigs being led around by the nose rings of politics
I know we use "sad" way too often these days to describe people's poor thinking... as in it is sad the way you are all acting.
But I am going to introduce a new adjective to replace "sad"
SCARY!
You people scare me.

 

I don’t understand your post. I’m saying that I trust the health and public safety experts and their knowledge on this, even if they don’t have all the data they need (and won’t until enough time passes and they have fully adequate tests, resources, and support). They are the experts and they have analyzed past events to make very well thought out assessments that this far have been accurate. If anything, it should scare us that this White House administration has constantly contradicted the experts and dismissed science, medicine, and public health.
That, I will not stay quiet about because it offends anyone who doesn’t want to hear it, regardless of political party (I am and have been an independent since I started voting years ago).

 

I just saw an interesting statistic. Italy has been overwhelmed by this. Italy only had 3.2 hospital beds for every 1000 people.
The United States has only 2.8 hospital beds for every 1000 people.

 

NFL draft is reportedly going to be delayed.

The average hospital occupancy rate in 2017 was about 66%. There are currently 924,107 hospital beds in the country. So about 34% or 315 thousand would be available on average at a given time, or about 1 in 1000 people. If they cease all elective surgery's, then more would be available.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/185904/hospital-occupancy-rate-in-the-us-since-2001/

 

So, my chimp brain processed that as, it’s even worse than what I posted?

 

Yes it is a fact they have been overwhelmed. Two other facts to consider. Italy has a 24% smoking rate. That is 7% higher than the US. They have an elderly population that represents roughly 23% of their population and the US is at 16%. Those 2 things put a greater percent of their population at much higher risk for CV complications.

That doesn't do anything to change the situation with the number of beds, but these are things that other countries should consider when scaling the building of hospitals and medical facilities. The trend in the US over the last decade has been to avoid building longer term care facilities and move more toward triage and urgent care. If we look at the number of hospital beds, and were to include urgent care, the number of beds as options gets bigger.