What if CV doesn’t go away after flu season

Discussion in 'GarryP's Trojan Huddle' started by Troy70, Mar 1, 2020.

  1. LucGomez40

    LucGomez40 Junior Member


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    #21
    Exactly Denali. You are spot on. The denominator is vastly greater than can be known, this mortality rate lower.
     
  2. Jay4usc

    Jay4usc Points Member


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    #22
    It won’t effect USC since many fans will not be going to the games.
     
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  3. The Garage Mahal

    The Garage Mahal Junior Member


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    #23
    I mean, the obvious riposte is "how accurate is the denominator when calculating the case fatality rate for the ordinary flu?"

    If you drill down, the estimate is essentially based on a survey in 2010 of whether people went to the hospital for flu symptoms, and extrapolating what percentage hospital visits represented of all cases. It's certainly better than nothing, and likely better than the current situation where there is essentially no testing capacity, but...

    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/how-cdc-estimates.htm

    I don't doubt there's likely leakage in the data diagnosing this coronavirus, but dismissing this as no more lethal than the seasonal flu we're all used to, for which we have vaccines, and for which there seems to be much existing immunity seems pretty premature.
     
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  4. SouthbayTrojan91

    SouthbayTrojan91 Junior Member


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    #24
    That is patently not true.
    The vast majority of people who get this virus never go to the doctor because they are not sick enough.
    Death rate of reported cases in China is around 2.5% ; in the U.S. it is around 1.5% and all CDC officials acknowledge the # of affected people is likely orders of magnitude higher and the death rates are more likely less than .5%
     
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  5. SouthbayTrojan91

    SouthbayTrojan91 Junior Member


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    #25
    You mean the fake videos?

    News flash: Everything you see on the internet is not true
     
  6. 3rd Slide

    3rd Slide Junior Member


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    #26
    Yeah, it’s not like the press would ever succumb to embellishment or excessive negativity bias. But feel free to quarantine yourself, lol.
     
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  7. J4SC75

    J4SC75 Junior Member


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    #27
    Just saying I'm not making these numbers up. They are coming from folks who do epidemiology for a living.

    "The vast majority of people who get this virus never go to the doctor because they are not sick enough"

    How do you know this if there hasn't been testing? As testing takes place, we'll know this better.

    Yes it may be less and I hope it is substantially less. I'm not asking people to panic, just take this seriously. The public health folks know what they are doing.
     
  8. SouthbayTrojan91

    SouthbayTrojan91 Junior Member


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    #28
    Definitely taking it serious. But panic and manipulation by some in the public spotlight is not helpful.
    Here is a good article; https://humanprogress.org/article.php?p=2472
     
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  9. denali15

    denali15 Points Member


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    #29
    Don't put too much faith in testing. About 1M people come down with "flu-like" symptoms every week. How many of those are you going to test? And why does it matter which virus they have, given that most of those folks will be just fine?

    Yes, we have to take this seriously, but we'll suffer more from the panic and the economic effects of that, rather than folks dying from this.
     
  10. Sam Bam

    Sam Bam Junior Member


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    #30
    All this talk about what the mortality rate true denominator is is moot if even one person you love / know is in the numerator. Without panic let's all do the simple things being asked of us to keep both numerator and denominator low even if we are not at great risk.
     
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  11. Boselli

    Boselli Junior Member

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    #31
    in 1918 a third of the worlds population caught and carried the influenza virus. Of those 10% died...~ 50,000,000
    Don't politicize it up or down. It is a serious problem.
    If there is anything as poorly thought out so as to loudly spread (political) worry it is those who refuse to (politically) worry at all.
    None of you may be as opaque or transparent as you think you are.
     
  12. denali15

    denali15 Points Member


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    #32
    Not getting the point here. No one is "refusing to worry at all." If I'm wrong, show me the post.

    The hysteria is what some are pushing back against. Canceling FB games, e.g.?

    Some fun facts: so far, not one person under the age of 15 has contracted this. Most folks don't even know they're infected. Outside of China, there aren't many reports of healthy people dying from this. In the US, the deaths are those that are elderly (several in the same nursing home) or otherwise ailing. And yes, as with most flu-like viruses, this will like abate when warmer weather comes, and return in the fall.

    In the meantime, at least one company--INO--claims it will have a vaccine ready by the end of the year, although not in the quantities needed. Other companies are rushing out their drugs as well.

    So yes, take this seriously, but staying away from sporting events? Sheesh. The sky isn't falling and there is no "pandemic" so far.
     
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  13. SouthbayTrojan91

    SouthbayTrojan91 Junior Member


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    #33
    LOL. That literally made me laugh. Not sure you were trying to be funny but is comedy gold.

    I am trying to figure out if I am neither as opaque OR as transparent as I think I am, what am I?
    Golem may still have that ring if he had used this riddle.
     
  14. silversprint

    silversprint Junior Member


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    #34
    The problem is not the disease itself but a bunch of people going to a football game at the same time and getting the disease. If a 100,000 people show up and just 1000 of those develope the most critical symptoms 10 days later. There are not enough critical respiratory ICU beds in all of LA county to treat them.

    Korea now has thousands of people waiting for an open bed.

    You have to slow the transmission so the healthcare system can keep up. Even the best healthcare system is useless if there is no room.

    It's not just the flu. The severity of the symptoms is worse especially in those with underlying health conditions.
     
  15. TrojanHorse

    TrojanHorse Junior Member


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    #35
    I'm more aligned with Veebs on this one. After a few spins on the old ball, you've seen this script --and the accompanying hysteria--before.

    Still, it does not make sense to take unnecessary chances until they know a little more.
     
  16. denali15

    denali15 Points Member


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    #36
    Actually, it is basically "just the flu." Do you avoid FB games during flu season, out of fear of overwhelming the hospitals? I'm with this guy:

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-corona-sanders-panic-ebbs-11583279260?mod=opinion_major_pos8
     
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  17. Troy70

    Troy70 Junior Member


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    #37
    My mom is 93 & not going to the Coli . She tells me SC is crazy to keep Clay & refuses to go, lol.
     
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  18. silversprint

    silversprint Junior Member


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    #38
    I'm sitting in my office here across from a major hospital watching them erect a big tent to treat incoming Coronavirus cases here in Riverside County. Healthcare providers aren't moved by politics. They deal with facts and what they need to do to reduce risk.

    The death rate in the US will skyrocket in the next few weeks, probably starting in Seattle. Everyone is just waiting for it to happen. If China did not move as aggressively their number of deaths would have been far higher. The US on March first is where China was on January 1. The lack of mandatory isolation in the US might make the situation here worse than China.

    Italy cancelled every sporting event in the country. Some they will play in empty stadiums.
     
  19. denali15

    denali15 Points Member


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    #39
    The Seattle deaths occurred in a nursing home. As noted in the article, the best place to get the virus is in a hospital or from a health care worker, who seem to be the ones spreading it in China.

    The "death rate" will not affect very many healthy people...and in this case, for some reason, it leaves children alone. We'll all start washing our hands (contact from a surface, then touching your face it the way it gets spread--not really airborne that much) and how knows? Deaths from flu, this virus, colds, etc, may actually go down, as we all take precautions.

    No, China did not act "aggressively." They denied for a couple months, jailed reporters who tried to get the word out and put their heads in the sand.

    The situation won't be "worse" than in China. Heck--the "situation" wouldn't have been as bad if the outbreak were in Beijing instead of some backwards provincial city, where elites don't live.
     
  20. SouthbayTrojan91

    SouthbayTrojan91 Junior Member


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    #40
    Reported infections may be lower, but children have come down with it and at least 1 has died.
    Likely it has more to do with the fact that kids are always sick and when they get it, you treat it just like any other time and stick them in bed with fluids.
     

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