O/NSO: 2018 game-by-game predictions - Part 2 edition

As much as I don't trust or appreciate or have any confidence in Tee Martin, I don't see a scenario where we go 7-5. Those odds are pretty low of that happening. I don't think HCCH and Drevno would let us make that many stupid decisions. BUT, I think "The Backpack" [JT] will develop as fast or faster than Matt Barkley and we all recall that great game in the Horseshoe on the Olentangy against the Suckeyes. Anyway I still think winning in Austin is a tall order, especially after seeing how the game went in the Coli last year, and it will take really good luck injury-wise to have the horses up front to out hammer the Domers in the final game. I would love to see us sucker punch them a number of times and out-strategize to use their tendencies against them - they will expect and demand a W, but I'm afraid we aren't smart enough to game plan this one. So I say 10-2 going in to the Pac-12 game with a 50/50 chance of defending that Pac-12 title, and a nice bowl game but no CFP. We just are not ready for prime time yet.

Though I agree with Katz that Utah is NOT a trap game since it will be well circled on the calendar, a "W" is not at all certain in that one. I know, most here think I respect Kyle Whittingham too much and that I was stupid for wanting him instead of HCCH. Point is that that game could give us a 9-3 instead of 10-2 season and make even a Pac-12 appearance uncertain. but there's no way we go 7-5, and with all the new coaches in the Pac, and 8-4 is even a stretch.

 

Yes we have had two full years to do all of that,.... BUT WE DIDN'T! I think this year could be the year that starts though, primarily due to the arrival of Drevno and a healthy Carr and a beast in the slot with a sharp QB. Clancy wil bail us our a few times this year; Furd, Utah, and MAYBE ND.

 

C'mon Greg! The last two times ND was here we put up 49 on them in 49-14 & 49-27 thrashings. More of the same this year. We beat them by at least 14 to end our regular season and finish 11-1.

 

It’s one thing to have a solid defense and depth to match, however, the offense can not afford to continually go 3 and out 3 and out. They are going to have to do their fair share and maybe a little more to get the kind of season we know they are certainly capable of

 

This is one of the narratives that I just don’t get - that USC was plagued with 3-and-outs last season... but in fact USC went 3-and-out only a fraction of the time. I tallied all drives last season (excluding the meaningless last drives of half or end of game that were just basically kneel-downs), and a shade under 16% of all USC’s drives were 3-and-outs. Just over 40% were scoring drives. Big issue was that almost 14% were turnover drives.

Three-and-outs cause bad field positions occasionally, more so if our special teams can’t do their job. Turnovers cause bad field positions frequently, putting the defense under pressure. Lo and behold, our 2 biggest issues were turnovers and special teams... 3-and-outs is the furthest from our minds. If we improve on protecting the ball and getting better on ST, I don’t care who our QB is we will seriously threaten for the Pac-12 and CFP.

 

See it wasn't that hard Greg.

Didn't know this thanks for this information. If the team can clear up red-zone efficiency, cut done on turnovers, improve o-line consistency, do better on ST's and the defense does as projected. The skies the limits, forget who starts at QB. They will have a field day.

 

What I’d be curious to see is the stat for failed 3rd & 4th downs (where we went for the 1st) in critical situations, i.e., the in red zone (missed scoring opportunities) or burn the clock moments (preventing opponents from scoring). For instance, how many such situations occurred in last year’s Texas game and, if we had been successful instead, how different the overall result would have been?

 

I didn’t look at that particular stat, but from what I recall it was a lot. I recall mid last season that we were bad statistically there in 2016 and to that point last season. Certainly an area that we must improve on to get over that hump. My take on it is that Tee & Clay were so intent on wanting to be physical that they felt the “need”(?) to just pound it up the middle. I’m actually not opposed to that idea, but only if we’re able to do so. By all rights we should be able to do that. Now that we’ve had the same coaches and training/development regimen for 3 years and Clay’s players, this should be the year where they show that ability in earnest.

 

I believe that's everyone's fear: 1) that they were focused on being physical and imposing our will, 2) opponents reacted by loading the box, and 3) we did not adjust to their adjustments and repeatedly failed at critical moments.

The only play that I can recall us doing differently (from a play calling perspective, excluding Sam improvising, ie, the jump pass to Carr or the 54-yard pass to Pittman - forgive me if these were called plays) was the pass to Josh Falo.