Musings from Arledge: COVID-19

Discussion in 'GarryP's Trojan Huddle' started by ErikMcKinney, Mar 19, 2020.

  1. Ojaitrojan

    Ojaitrojan Points Member


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    Mar 20, 2020
    #21
    Pulled from the CDC website, update on 3.19.2020 at 4:00 p.m. eastern. A) the total number of cases is still very small, even though with a two week incubation period it should be way higher, per the models; and B) The trend line is not worrisome.

    Sure, it is still a small sample size, and the total number of cases is smaller than reality, as these are the number of cases that are severe enough to warrant a visit to the hospital. Even so, with all of the panic one would expect that the numbers on the graph would be exploding.

    A real question that needs to be asked is how many lives will be lost due to increases in depression, drug abuse (both illegal and prescription), and alcohol abuse due to the coming economic depression.
     

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  2. J4SC75

    J4SC75 Junior Member


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    #22
    That being said it is spot on.
     
  3. J4SC75

    J4SC75 Junior Member


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    #23
    Because as others have noted, it is not only the elderly who get sick and die, and you want to slow the spread so that you don’t overwhelm your health care system. The press happens more quickly if you don’t take such measures.
     
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  4. denali15

    denali15 Points Member


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    #24
    The same folks who claim that Trump is Hitler...are the ones that want to give him more authority during this crisis--authority that never seems to go away when crises are over.
     
  5. denali15

    denali15 Points Member


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    #25
    I read someplace that in 2019, 14,000 people traveled to/from China every DAY. So between October, when the virus seemed to emerge in Wuhan, hundreds of thousands or even millions traveled to or from China. If the CV is so contagious, it's a stretch to pretend that no one in the US was infected until 2020...and that there are only a relatively few thousand that are "positive."

    The likely reality is that millions have already been exposed. My office manager back in January had what now seem like CV symptoms. She stayed home and did what you do with a typical flu-like issue--rest, liquids, etc. CV wasn't on the radar then, so the docs weren't looking for it. Most of you probably know folks with a similar story, as the vast majority of "positives" either don't know they had the disease or had mild symptoms.

    So in reality, the virus might have already crested, but we don't know one way or another. We don't know how many are infected already, what the mortality rate is (likely zero for young people, high for those that are already sick or elderly)...what we do know is that "sheltering in place" is mere grandstanding by politicians. It won't "contain" the virus, merely lengthen the period we're facing it and wrecking the economy in the meantime.

    Being smart--washing hands, distancing, maybe having restaurants at 50% of capacity to spread out diners, isolate those most at risk--sure. Ruining lives with a shutdown? The "cure" is worse than the disease--and might not be a cure at all.

    Another way to go: flatten the curve for at-risk folks, but steepen the curve for healthy younger people, who won't get very sick and might build a "herd immunity." Or, bad as it sounds, just live with some overcrowding of hospitals for a bit and get it over with, instead of "flattening" for months.

    JMHO. I bring the same lack of medical expertise at our OP here.

    Regarding the politics...Obama basically did nothing during the Swine Flu and we survived (at a cost of 12-18K dead, 61M exposed), which might have been the right way to go, so I'm not criticizing him, just offering a comparison. While the virus was expanding here, Dems were busy impeaching Trump, so he might be forgiven for being distracted. I'd prefer he offer a little pushback against the hysterics, but that's probably bad politics.
     
  6. BOULDER TO BIRMINGHAM

    BOULDER TO BIRMINGHAM Junior Member


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    Mar 21, 2020
    #26
    Another spot on column Chris. No doubt this virus is a serious problem, and people will die. But we are destroying what was thriving economy, and giving up our liberties. The cure seems worse than the disease. And I am with you AMLTrojan. Trump aggravates me with his demeanor, but the democrats(claiming to be media) will go to any means to blame this whole episode on him. And the calling him a racists for identifying where this disease emenated is beyond foolish. A Biden presidency will be distrastratous.
     
  7. AMLTrojan

    AMLTrojan Junior Member


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    Mar 21, 2020
    #27
    denali15, I'm not ruling out that your description could be right. The issue is, what if we plan for and run that scenario, but we find out reality ends up being more like Wuhan and Italy? Prudence suggests we go the other way: Take an economic hit for a few weeks, and find out once data is more ample that we've overreacted and can go back to normal with just a few extra precautions in place.
     
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  8. Tamatoa916

    Tamatoa916 Junior Member


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    Mar 21, 2020
    #28
    Arhedge, I work in hotels it has been a depressing week laying off 80% of the staff...Hotels are closed or closing. I was angry weeks ago, I’ve never had a flu shot my entire life. Many I know that grew up in my parts didn’t either. Probably not the safest way to live, but that has been my life.

    I agree, should isolate the elder and those with immune challenged health. Let the rest of us go to work just like we have always done. Who is a going to pay for these people’s financial problems that will multiply quickly.... I’ll take my chances as I’ve done my whole life against the flu against etc etc.

    I’ll tell you something else. I foresee a big bail out to companies....possibly a huge insurance filing as well by corporations. Who is gonna pay for that infusion of funds to large corporations? Don’t get me wrong, I love the company I work for. However, most of any of that will be handed to ownership not the housekeeper I just gave a temporary lay off too.
    Friking dumb dumbs running the country.
     
    Last edited: Mar 21, 2020
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  9. SoCal93

    SoCal93 Junior Member


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    Mar 21, 2020
    #29
    My single biggest question regarding this "pandemic" is, What is the Endgame? Americans are having thier liberties and rights being infringed upon but when and how will the end be achieved?

    Where's the get-well timeline that indicates when X, Y and Z happen, the pandemic is over? I've yet to see this and it's pissing me off.
     
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  10. SoCalN8tiv

    SoCalN8tiv Junior Member


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    Mar 22, 2020
    #30
    One important thing that everyone here is missing is when this virus runs its course in the U.S., we and the rest of the world will finally have bonafide real data to use that's reliable unlike the distorted data coming from commie countries and smaller populated countries giving smaller samples to work with. This is so important to defend against future outbreaks that will allow for the construction of better plans to mitigate another outbreak so our people and America's economy will not suffer needlessly. For certain, the manufacturing of medical supplies, pharmaceuticals, and many other things important to our national security is definitely going to change significantly so as not to rely on other countries, especially those that will wield this advantage over our heads to essentially exact control over us. This is a wake up call to put America's medical needs first by nestling all our most important medical infrastructure - especially manufacturing - within our borders, and most importantly, for our control. Who would have thunk it that literally dividing the country to combat this virus would end up better uniting the country? It's the irony that kicks partisan politics in the teeth.
     
    Last edited: Mar 22, 2020
  11. usc88

    usc88 Junior Member


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    Mar 22, 2020
    #31
    What makes coronavirus so dangerous is that it is highly infectious. It is spreading like wildfire through the world.
    And worse of all it can kill you without proper medical care.
    The US is doing what the rest of the world is doing. Italy, Spain, Iran are suffering because of the coronavirus.
    It is not to be taken lightly.
     
  12. denali15

    denali15 Points Member


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    Mar 22, 2020
    #32
    Turns out that countries with Bernie Care aren't faring well.
     
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  13. KiwiSCfan

    KiwiSCfan Points Member


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    Mar 23, 2020
    #33
    I know it’s nowhere near comparing apples with apples but I thought I’d share so here goes. I live in New Zealand - We’ve just hit 100 total cases today, a third of which were added today. As a result, the Prime Minister and Govt have issued a mandatory countrywide 28-day lockdown stating in less than 36hrs.
    The hope of course is that it will deny the virus any more hosts to feed on and eventually see it die down/out (for now) without reaching mass community spread. Who knows, it could already be too late.
    There’s no g’tee obviously and I know NZ is so small compared with the US that it’s not really a valid/fair comparison, but we are fortunate here that the head of state listens to their health officials, sans a laisezz-faire attitude. It appears getting out in front of this thing may be the only way to truly ‘control’ it. Like the US and everywhere else our economy here will take a curb-stomping (and already is) hopefully this may be shorter lived than the effects of trying to catch the virus after it’s bolted - we may even get back to a point in a few months where sports other than marble racing are on prime time TV;-) I hope like heck that all impacted folks recover quickly and also that early Sept brings Trojan football...Best wishes in these unreal times to all the Trojan family wherever you are! ✌
     
  14. gubo&palanka

    gubo&palanka Points Member

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    Mar 23, 2020
    #34
    World population equals 7.7 billion.

    300,000 cases (not deaths).

    0.004%.
     
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  15. GoSC1

    GoSC1 Junior Member


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    #35
    Good point. How are we to know this is over... seriously. When the rate of infections and deaths drop? When there is a vaccine? One of the biggest questions I have heard asked is the question of it you get COVID 19, and survive, are you immune to it from that point on? If the answer is no...... don't want to think about it.
     
  16. uscvball

    uscvball Junior Member


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    #36
    The answer is no. Very similar to seasonal flu in that you can get the flu shot but it's a cocktail based on guesses/predictions from epidemiologists. Every year can provide another strain. The vaccine will hopefully minimize the symptoms when you do get sick. And trust. at some point, every American will end up with COVID whether they have symptoms or not.
     
  17. DaFireMedic

    DaFireMedic Junior Member


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    #38

    Based on what we know so far, you shouldn’t be able to get Covid-19 twice, but that’s not not set in stone. There are many strains of influenza out there and that’s why you can still get the flu again, but you won’t get the same strain of flu a second time as our bodies build immunities to viruses. The developers of flu vaccines predict what are the most likely strains to be a problem in a given year and put them in the vaccine, but you can still get any of the other flu strains.

    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.health.com/condition/infectious-diseases/coronavirus/can-you-get-coronavirus-twice?amp=true

    F
    rom the article:

    “The bottom line? “Based on all that we know so far, once you have the COVID-19 infection, you can’t get it again,” says Dr. Loghman-Adham. “But there are always exceptions."”
     
  18. denali15

    denali15 Points Member


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    #39
    But as you note, we'll have a COVID 21 and a COVID 22...just like the flu, I'm guessing. This is part of our life now.
     
  19. Sam Bam

    Sam Bam Junior Member


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    Mar 23, 2020
    #40
    I think that this is extremely important and how we should prioritize things like this as a homeland security issue / Defense issue is paramount. Look this one might not be a weaponized attack or even the "big one" in terms of mortality rate but another one may be.

    The private health sector can only take so many risks but can't we see the strategic necessity for an emergency / auxiliary health system to be in place in case a really bad virus happens. In fact this system could provide jobs. Innovation - perhaps like medical quality 3D printer farms for equipment. Quick assembly of Mobile hospitals that are held in a state ready to deploy ( we all liked MASH right). A way to quickly create medical supplies by switching production.

    I saw some wall street type saying that historically, event driven recession troughs don't last as long. I hope he is right.
    I have already lost my job in real estate marketing due to this ( I hope this is the worst effect I feel) so I get it. The CEO is a little short sighted in a way but of course cash flow is king so can't really blame them.

    I also hope Chris' use of the Korean mortality table is accurate compared to the general one we have seen but at this point we don't know. I'm genX so that demographic is better in the Korean table by far. I have heard some of the younger generations have started calling this the "boomer remover" - disgusting if true.

    What we do know historically is that the last two years roughly 2.8 Million Americans die per year or roughly 7,500 a day. Let's hope the death toll of this is much lower than that.
     

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