Great News For U.S. Economy:

Discussion in 'MKJ Off-Topic' started by FIGHTONSC, Aug 4, 2020.

  1. Great News For U.S. Economy:
    FIGHTONSC

    FIGHTONSC Junior Member

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  2. GaryB

    GaryB Junior Member


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    #4
    If you read the actual survey (Report: https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-report-on-business/pmi/july/) you will notice that employment is declining and prices are increasing. Since January, the dollar index has declined from 99.09 to 93.76. When you combine Trump's tariffs with the weaker dollar, the costs/price increases are easily explained. But, given the optimism in the survey, why do manufacturers expect more layoffs?

    A more fundamental problem is why actual manufacturing output is down since 3rd quarter 2018. Manufacturing output has declined from 105.935 to 103.109 (source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OUTMS).

    In the last 50 years, the Manufacturing Value Added as a share of GDP has exceeded the growth of GDP. Economist attributed the added value to automation and the increasing value of the US Dollar. The recent decline of the dollar can be attributed directly to Trump's foreign policies which support a weak dollar. Since day one, Trump has made it very clear that he wanted a weak dollar in support of multi-national corporations.

    On the other hand, the future of manufacturing is directly tied to automation, which is at a standstill waiting for 5G. As with all transformative technologies there is a delay between theory and implementation and the US is sitting in that trough today. For those that remember the epic battle between GSM and CDMI for cellular protocol standards, the same issues exists today. In the interim, capital expenditures output suffers.
     
  3. FIGHTONSC

    FIGHTONSC Junior Member

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    #5
    You just can’t help yourself, can you?

    Anything that is good for America you try to tear down.

    Do us all a favor and go back to Communist China where you belong!
     
    SCBIGTIME, DJ4SC, SoCalN8tiv and 3 others like this.
  4. SoCalN8tiv

    SoCalN8tiv Junior Member


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    #6
    GaryB. The 'B' is for Beijing. Awwww, too bad for GaryB, but the US is decoupling from his beloved toxic China.
     
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  5. August West

    August West Points Member


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    #8
    LOL, his anti-Tariff stance is proof positive he wants the massive trade imbalance, loss of American jobs to continue.
     
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  6. DJ4SC

    DJ4SC Junior Member


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    #9
    So another Democratic plan to take down Trump is in the toilet.

    What’s next? Asteroid?
     
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  7. fssca51

    fssca51 Junior Member

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    #10
    Any increase in manufacturing activity is good news. It means people are working which is never a bad thing no matter what other economic indices say. .
     
  8. jiordone

    jiordone Junior Member


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    #11
    Gold standard and global reset coming soon.
     
  9. GaryB

    GaryB Junior Member


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    #12
    As soon as there is some good news I will acknowledge it. You posted an article (not the PMI report) that indicated purchasing agents were optimistic, but they were planning layoffs. Why you find that article optimistic is a head scratcher for me.

    Trump passed a tax cut that was designed to increase aggregate demand for products and spur manufacturers to return to the US. Nine months into the tax cut, the manufacturing sector entered a recession, which exists to this date. Instead of figuring out why this sector was in recession, you want to attack me for pointing out that output and employment are declining. The article is worthless.

    You have all argued that you would be willing to pay more for US made products; but the fact is people won't pay more. Now, you have the dollar declining in value, which will increase the cost of imported raw materials. Then, you have to add the tariffs to the cost of the raw materials. And, at the same time, 52 million workers on unemployed. Have you given any thought to the fact that Trump might consider changing policies?

    Yes, the bigger the better. As Milton Friedman stated "A sustained trade deficit is the best possible outcome. You have to be an incredibly wealthy nation to have more goods coming into the country than going out."

    You are arguing for a massive debasement of our currency and the end of life as we know it. Our standard of living will plummet. Be careful what you ask for.
     
    Last edited: Aug 4, 2020
  10. jiordone

    jiordone Junior Member


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    #13
    You are arguing for a massive debasement of our currency and the end of life as we know it. Our standard of living will plummet. Be careful what you ask for.[/QUOTE]


    Not arguing for anything, just telling you that it is happening, and it will be good for the World.
     
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  11. DaFireMedic

    DaFireMedic Junior Member


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    #14
    Left leaning governors will continue to do what they can to hinder the economy. They will step up their efforts to make the public as miserable as they can until after the election.
     
  12. August West

    August West Points Member


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    #15

    Not arguing for anything, just telling you that it is happening, and it will be good for the World.[/QUOTE]
    He hates America. So yea.
     
  13. August West

    August West Points Member


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    #16
    So there you have it folks....Gary Commie says the bigger the trade deficit, the better. The more the competition controls us the better. Being completely dependent on some else for our pharma is best for us.

    Is there any doubt who’s side he’s on?
     
  14. GaryB

    GaryB Junior Member


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    #17
    I have to admit that it boggles my mind that anyone would be arguing your points.

    We are the only country in the world that has the power to print a worthless piece of paper and call it money. Then, we hand the worthless piece of paper to someone in another country for physical products that they have spent time and money to build.

    Now, we have the use of their production and they are holding our worthless pieces of paper. Somehow, Trump has convinced you that this transaction is a bad deal for us.

    Every country in the world would change places with us and you want to throw this massive advantage away. Go figure...
     
  15. GaryB

    GaryB Junior Member


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    #18
    How will the debasement of the US Dollar be good for the country? Do you understand why Nixon severed the exchange of our currency for gold? Our standard of living will immediately decline should your prophesy prove true.
     
  16. August West

    August West Points Member


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    #19
    It shouldn’t boggle your mind, it’s polar opposite of what China wants. Which is why you disagree with me.

    And that’s fine, America isn’t for everyone....just don’t act like you’re anything other than what you are.
     
  17. TroyBill

    TroyBill Junior Member


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    #20
    Gary is our board's Eeyore. Eeyore is a character in the Winnie-the-Pooh books by A. A. Milne. He is generally characterized as a pessimistic, gloomy, depressed, anhedonic, old grey stuffed donkey who is a friend of the title character, Winnie-the-Pooh. He relishes being contrarian. That is his stick. If someone posts something optimistic he is there to bring it down. However unlike Eeyore, he loves to talk down to people....not an endearing quality. So far my portfolio has roared back. That being said, I have told my broker to keep a close eye on things as the elections are closer. We are in for a major hose job if the dems take over.
     

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