Freakonomics on Firing Coaches

Discussion in 'GarryP's Trojan Huddle' started by heyrev, Jan 4, 2020.

  1. gubo&palanka

    gubo&palanka Points Member

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    #21
     
  2. gubo&palanka

    gubo&palanka Points Member

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  3. gubo&palanka

    gubo&palanka Points Member

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    #23
    This is a great take.

    Do we need to move quickly or could the right coach still bring SC back even after the inevitable damage of another 10 years of Helton? In other words, could waiting too long be harmful even to a program with the inherent potential of SC?
     
  4. nvargas

    nvargas Junior Member


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    #24
    Such a loaded topic to be reduced to whether to change a coach or not. This decison can't be isolated to a "Y/N" proposition, as there are so many other factors that should be considered.

    Statistics play to an agnostic mean. Unless the study is broken down into specific scenarios, it's too generic to be useful to our specific case. For example, is this assuming all else remains the same as the culture that was developed under the previous regime (i.e. AD/Prez, etc.)? We've already replaced our AD/Prez, why hang onto the same old spark plugs after replacing the cap/distributor/wires?

    Also, does it depend on the school and their "perception"? Do "BlueBloods" fare different than say a SunBelt team? Reason being, a lot more is expected from BB schools, than just to stand pat. Especially a fanbase in LA that demands excellence, or they'll just do something else. We're a bandwagon market, the opportunity-cost to kick the can to next year is greater here than say...Baylor or Ole Miss. We don't really have a captured-audience that will hang around unconditionally.
     
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  5. TrojanRandy

    TrojanRandy Junior Member


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  6. AMLTrojan

    AMLTrojan Junior Member


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    #26
    That's part of the point of Taleb: the mean is not really agnostic.

    Fill up the Coliseum with 75,000 people and calculate the mean body mass. It's probably 175lb +/- 25lb depending on women and children present. Now add the heaviest person in the world. The mean won't change much.

    Now take those same 75,000 people and calculate the mean annual income. That number is probably in the $75k range. Now add the richest person in the world. The mean would now suddenly and misleadingly spike to a much higher number based on that one outlier.

    The point is, the specifics of what is being counted in the numerator matter.

    But yes, we're in violent agreement that you can't lump in USC with the likes of Baylor, Ole Miss, Iowa State, Akron, Louisiana Tech, Rutgers, Arizona... and I could go on.
     
  7. flyfishintrojan

    flyfishintrojan Junior Member


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    #27
    The word “ overthinking” comes to mind here.
     
  8. AMLTrojan

    AMLTrojan Junior Member


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    #28
    Yes, well, that's basically the inescapable result of applying economic analysis to the topic of coaching changes in college football. Now back to yet another "FIRE HELTON NOW!!!" or "West Coast recruiting sucks!" (a flyfishin special right there) thread.
     
  9. heyrev

    heyrev Junior Member


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    #29
    OK, fair enough. And yes, MG made a decisive firing of Hackett. But to equate that to the Helton situation ignores something: the current stench of uncertainty hanging over the football program. The string of bad hires and interims in coaching (an unprecedented decade), plus AD upheaval. It puts way more pressure on the accuracy of this next hire. Schools like Nebraska, Tennessee, and FSU, to me, only validate the veracity of this article. All bluebloods failing consistently by falling for the "Firing Fallacy."
     
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  10. heyrev

    heyrev Junior Member


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    #30
    You just teed up more jokes here than you even know...
     
  11. nvargas

    nvargas Junior Member


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    #31
    In fairness to FSU & Nebraska, FSU lost their prominent coach as he left for another school (Fisher), not due to a firing. They fired Taggert as it was a bad gamble, but those things do happen from time to time. Same for Nebraska. They gambled on Riley and it didn't work out. I would have hired Frost in a heartbeat, and would do that all over again. Didn't feel like their moves were impatient or reckless...other than the Taggert hire.

    Tennessee...yes, that was a train wreck, but they did manage to bring back the coach they fired, to be in the front office...but not even that worked.

    Miami being the other interesting case and probably most similar to us in results. They've tried all sorts of things, and it just doesn't seem to be working there.
     
  12. nvargas

    nvargas Junior Member


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    #32
    Yes, I'm familiar with how a mean works. Problem being, the mean is not all that relevent to outliers or data points several sigmas away from the mean. The mean just shows where "most" data points are. In this case, showing what affects Toledo would endure from firing their coach, or Indiana, would not relate much at all to SC...even though you can calculate a mean of "most" schools.

    LA has a very unique culture as it relates to supporting CFB, SC in particular has a unique heritage that is both deep, but also fragile. We don't have patience for mediocrity. I don't know that Lebron/Davis will deliver a Lakers championship, but these additions have restored life to the program and made the Lakers relevant again. Anything short of that would have led to more Clippers converts or just fans no longer following NBA like myself. Lakers are not the Jazz or Blazers.
     
  13. denali15

    denali15 Points Member


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    #33
    Tennessee is a blue blood only in its own mind. No real FB pedigree compared with, say, 20 other programs.

    Nebraska was hot back when they pioneered modern S & C training, which put them ahead of other folks. How many runs has Nebraska really had since Devaney/Osborne? They aren't exactly in tOSU/UM/Penn State's league as a blue blood.
     
  14. nvargas

    nvargas Junior Member


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    #34
    Tennessee had a good thing going for a while, but never really a contender at the elite levels. Even after Fulmer, they still recruited well and took many players SC wanted, but to no avail. I thought the Pruitt hire was a decent one, but like Miami...nothing is working.

    Nebraska is unique in their rabid/loyal fanbase and general name recognition. Agree they haven't been relevant contenders in quite a while, but similar to Miami, their general perception will be one of a blueblood. A notch above Iowa/Wiscy, a notch below Mich/tOSU/Pedo St., mostly based on success decades ago.

    I still believe Frost will bring them back to prominence.
     
  15. nvargas

    nvargas Junior Member


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    #35
    FSU reminds me a bit of Michigan post-Carr. Flailing around for a couple years, taking gambles on bad coaches, but they'll get back to relevance soon. Too much there to continue mediocrity. FSU benefits from a weak ACC also. Don't have to be better than Clemson, just better than all the other losers.

    Miami and Tenessee on the other hand...SC feels your pain! No explanations for constantly stepping on our own d*cks over and over.
     
    Last edited: Jan 7, 2020
  16. denali15

    denali15 Points Member


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    #36
    "You can't spell 'Citrus' without a U and a T." Steve Spurrier's classic putdown of Tenn.
     
  17. 23 Blast on 3rd and 7

    23 Blast on 3rd and 7 Points Member


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    #37
    The situation here comes down to this question - is the greater risk in retaining or replacing Coach Helton? That really is it.


    And the answer seems as simple as the fact that the last three years recruits local recruits who would never have considered playing anywhere else are now considering playing everywhere else specifically because they can be more successfully competitively, and developmentally. They see the program going backwards, and they see the players development stalling or regressing in the program, and don't want to commit themselves to that situation. If this continues USC Football as we have known it will cease to exist within a decade and probably sooner.

    So, yes, there is risk in making a change, and no guarantee the next man up will be another Pete Carroll but not nearly the risk that is already there in not making it and allowing this situation to get even worse than it already is.
     
  18. denali15

    denali15 Points Member


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    #38
    The risk is that we get another mediocre coach that we're stuck with for 3-4 years.
     
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  19. nvargas

    nvargas Junior Member


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    #39
    Bringing in the seasoned DC that can serve as an interim HC is looking more and more like an attractive option. It gives the illusion of change, without the commitment of a binding contract for HC...until you decide on the HC you want to commit to.

    Unfortunately for us, we don't have an assistant on staff capable of being an interim, nor a DC out there that would want to come into this mess. We'll be stuck with keeping Helton until the end of the season. Graham is not qualified to be the HC of a P5 team.
     
    Last edited: Jan 7, 2020
  20. heyrev

    heyrev Junior Member


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    #40
    Absolutely yes, and given the limited number of coaches genuinely equipped to take on the unique challenge facing USC football, this hire needs a deliberate process. The right guy = quick return. Wrong guy = flirting with no return?
     
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