By the numbers: What does it take to win the Pac-12? (by Shravan Janakiraman)

Discussion in 'GarryP's Trojan Huddle' started by ErikMcKinney, Jun 18, 2020.

  1.    
  2. SGVFlip

    SGVFlip Points Member


    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2017
    Messages:
    1,090
    Likes Received:
    817
    Jun 18, 2020
    #2
    Weve been fair to middling overall for the last 9 seasons, more so on the defensive side.

    Keys will be the OL, then the running game from the offense. As far as the defense, the LB crew will need to get back to the days of LB U....

    THE DL should be fine, the safeties will more than hold their own, same thing with a deep, developing CB crew
     
    Rodgarnay51 likes this.
  3. Moose4usc

    Moose4usc Junior Member


    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2017
    Messages:
    109
    Likes Received:
    195
    Jun 18, 2020
    #3
    Wow! That was a LOT of work put in by Shravan--thank you for that.

    Seems like a good rushing offense is much more important than a good passing offense. Hmmmmm. Are we doomed from the start, or can our outlier QB overcome this trend and lead us to a Pac-12 title?
     
    CP619 and Rodgarnay51 like this.
  4. AMLTrojan

    AMLTrojan Junior Member


    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2017
    Messages:
    1,255
    Likes Received:
    1,414
    Jun 18, 2020
    #4
    Great stats! Some takeaways:

    - On offense, we are worse than average in penalties, sacks, and turnovers, shooting ourselves in the foot a lot. This is a loud indicator that probably masks a quieter indicator, which is that we also probably just make more mistakes on offense than our top competitors. And these mistakes are, by-and-large, reflective of sub-par offensive line play, which allows more rush pressure and fails to physically dominate adequately to enable to run game. All of this ties to why we have a poor running game -- because self-inflicted mistakes and a weak OL force longer downs and tip us to run more pass plays.

    - On defense, we seem to be fine on penalties, average against the pass, but terrible on run defense and creating turnovers. I believe this is because we suffer a fatal flaw of being unable to stop the run without cheating up LBs and safeties or blitzing, at which point we get beat on major yardage passing plays. The numbers here are just sad -- yuck! The CPC era is, sadly, long gone.
     
  5. kbruce9022

    kbruce9022 Junior Member

    Staff Member
    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2017
    Messages:
    586
    Likes Received:
    1,197
    Jun 18, 2020
    #5
    We won't win a championship until we play championship defense. Special team improvement would sure help. Turnovers and penalties seem to be a "strength" of ours. It is way past time for USC to play real football. If you graphed redzone success both offense and defense it would also tell an ugly story. This isn't a talent problem...
     
    pgoodman, Troy70, Rodgarnay51 and 4 others like this.
  6. SGVFlip

    SGVFlip Points Member


    Joined:
    Nov 13, 2017
    Messages:
    1,090
    Likes Received:
    817
    Jun 18, 2020
    #6
    We did turned over the whole D staff, so we should see soon enough. The Dline comes back intact, and the dbacks have 1 more year each of experience..LB play will be the key to all this... and Orlando is in charge of that...
     
    Troy70 and Rodgarnay51 like this.
  7. gubo&palanka

    gubo&palanka Points Member

    WeAreSc Member
    Joined:
    Sep 23, 2017
    Messages:
    2,846
    Likes Received:
    2,789
    Jun 18, 2020
    #7
    Wonderful feature.

    As others have noted, the numbers point to nothing more than a middle of the Pac program. ;-(
     
  8. Alvaro Carrillo

    Alvaro Carrillo Points Member


    Joined:
    Jan 28, 2018
    Messages:
    412
    Likes Received:
    328
    Jun 18, 2020
    #8
    To make the P12CG game we can't have more than 1 conference loss. I can recall at least two times where 2 losses was not enough to make it. What makes it even more painful is that we beat the one loss teams that won the South head to head.
     
  9. Canyon

    Canyon Junior Member


    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2017
    Messages:
    232
    Likes Received:
    188
    Jun 18, 2020
    #9
    Forget the stats and numbers. Simple fix, HC C.Helton must go. Rid this bullshitter, sissy, soft, class room lecturer, father figure, one of the boys football coach. Replace him with a tough minded, physical practices, Defensive type coach like, Pete Carroll, Saban, Dabo or Orgeron. The HC sets the tone for a championship football team. The team has been underachieving because of CCHelton. USC will never reach the final 4 of the BCS championship with Helton as HC. His brand of football is horrible.

    USC has a potent offense in place with OC GHarrell and tough D in place with DC TOrlando. The missing link is a tough mined Head Coach...
     
    Last edited: Jun 20, 2020
    Troy70 and gubo&palanka like this.
  10. AMLTrojan

    AMLTrojan Junior Member


    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2017
    Messages:
    1,255
    Likes Received:
    1,414
    Jun 18, 2020
    #10
    Sorry but the jury is still out on GH being able to sustain a run game, and while Clancy had to go, Orlando is unproven.
     
    Rodgarnay51 likes this.
  11. 3rd Slide

    3rd Slide Junior Member


    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2017
    Messages:
    2,529
    Likes Received:
    3,031
    Jun 18, 2020
    #11
    This. You nailed it completely AML.
     
  12. 3rd Slide

    3rd Slide Junior Member


    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2017
    Messages:
    2,529
    Likes Received:
    3,031
    Jun 18, 2020
    #12
    @kbruce9022 - what’s your outlook for an Orlando led D? IIRC, you weren’t a fan of CCP’s defensive scheme from the get go.
     
    Rodgarnay51 and gubo&palanka like this.
  13. BigRex

    BigRex Points Member


    Joined:
    Dec 7, 2019
    Messages:
    108
    Likes Received:
    81
    Jun 19, 2020
    #13
    I've always said that the air raid offense is poison for USC. It makes all of this worse. A team with a balanced offense gaining 400 yards a game is going to score more points and give up fewer than a pass-happy team that gets 500 yards a game. It is going to be more effective in the red zone, its QB won't be as likely to get injured, and it will be able to keep its defense off the field by controlling the clock. You're up by one point and just got the ball back with 4 minutes to go. Your defense is gassed. If you can run the ball, you can run out the 4 minutes. I've noticed that passing teams, when they need to run the ball at the end of a game, can't.
     
  14. Rodgarnay51

    Rodgarnay51 Junior Member


    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2017
    Messages:
    3,661
    Likes Received:
    3,432
    Jun 19, 2020
    #14
    I mentioned previously that in watching SC games on Pac 12 in the past few weeks, it was really surprising to me how much success opponents, even weak ones, had running the football against the Trojans last year. And that was just my (uneducated) eyeball test. Unfortunately the numbers seem to bear that out. At least they managed to keep Joshua Kelly from looking like Barry Sanders last year, but that's about it.
     
    gubo&palanka and Moose4usc like this.
  15. Rodgarnay51

    Rodgarnay51 Junior Member


    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2017
    Messages:
    3,661
    Likes Received:
    3,432
    Jun 19, 2020
    #15
    Kevin, do you think SC's LB play will be improved with Orlando? Last year it was appalling. I remember seeing a great Texas LB against SC a couple years ago; I believe it was Malik Jefferson. I'm hopeful, but also hoping that it improves a lot for reasons beyond it can't get any worse. It would be great to get your take on this, because many of us feel that LB was a big problem last year and I'm not sure whether it was a lack of talent, coaching or both.
     
  16. Rodgarnay51

    Rodgarnay51 Junior Member


    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2017
    Messages:
    3,661
    Likes Received:
    3,432
    Jun 19, 2020
    #16
    The numbers don't lie. 2018 was not a good year for the Trojans.
     
    gubo&palanka and in2nation like this.
  17. TrojanHorse

    TrojanHorse Junior Member


    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2017
    Messages:
    4,455
    Likes Received:
    3,805
    Jun 20, 2020
    #17
    Enjoyed this. It is refreshing to see data/statistics presented that don't seem to have a pre-planned agenda.
     
  18. Troy70

    Troy70 Junior Member


    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2017
    Messages:
    8,218
    Likes Received:
    8,070
    Jun 20, 2020
    #18
    Season rest on Drevno getting OL to open holes for RBs. OC needs to figure out a more balanced O.
     
  19. ErikMcKinney

    ErikMcKinney Administrator

    Staff Member
    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2018
    Messages:
    4,636
    Likes Received:
    11,333
    Jun 20, 2020
    #19
    That was the idea. I was genuinely curious as to what the numbers would say. You’ve got some big offensive teams with Oregon and some big defensive teams with Stanford over the years. Sure seems like defense and running the ball (surprise surprise) are consistent among conference winners.
     
  20. AMLTrojan

    AMLTrojan Junior Member


    Joined:
    Aug 24, 2017
    Messages:
    1,255
    Likes Received:
    1,414
    Jun 20, 2020
    #20
    Oregon and Stanford were opposites stylistically and tempo-wise, but both Chip and Shaw believed in exploiting mismatches and gashing you with the run game -- they just approached it in different ways.
     

Share This Page