George's Potpourri 7/8 - Season Questions

One of the reasons I like College football so much is the element of not knowing for sure which teams will prevail. With only 4-years of eligibility for each player there is a forced system of personnel turnover. We Trojans are enjoying an extended period of dominance and have every right to expect it to continue for several more seasons. But there is a problem.

For reasons that are hard to identify, we have been losing one or two upset games each season to lower ranked opponents. Since we lost the BCS championship game to Texas at the end of the 2005 season, we've lost in upsets to Oregon State and UCLA in 2006. In 2007 we lost to Stanford and Oregon and in 2008 we lost again to Oregon State. We are not getting beat by the best teams on our schedule although the loss to Oregon in 2007 was in Eugene so maybe you could classify it as only a "mild" upset.

I bet this bothers Pete as much, or more, than the rest of us. He's as competitive as you'll find. I believe his desire to succeed prompted him to change his staffing strategy. In the past, his preference appears to have been to fill vacancies by promoting from within. Last winter, he changed and recruited three experienced assistant coaches with big NFL reputations. In spring camp, Jeremy Bates, Jethro Franklin and Brian Schneider all looked like they had been part of the program for years. They fit right in and from everything I could see and hear, the players were pleased to work with them.

We're breaking in a new quarterback again this season. But that's not new, we did it last year also. We're going to start three new players at linebacker, but after spring camp, I can't find anyone who predicts that the LB position will be a weakness. We'll have a new punter, place kicker and kickoff specialist. With our new Special Teams coach on the job and the talent we have, those positions are expected to be well filled. Really, it is hard to point to any potential weakness as glaring. So, are we going suffer another upset?

The Table

I've listed our 2009 schedule on the table at the end of this column. We have 6 home games and 6 away. The most difficult opponents, Ohio State, California and Oregon are all away. I predict that the eastern press will have us favored in all three, and if we lose, will write them up as big upsets. When you look at his record, Pete's a good bet to win all the biggest games. And that's what I expect again this season. But what about the others, we've fallen asleep for at least one game the last three years? No one else on the schedule should be able to hang with us - but the drama season long is going to be: can we win all 12 games?

In the second column I've listed the 2008 record for each opponent and below that, for purposes of evaluation, the final Sagarin Strength of Schedule and National Rank of that schedule. Sagarin's ranking system is excellent and the one after the Bowls is as good as you can make it since it uses data from the full season. Poor Huskies, the worst team in the Pac-10 and had to play the toughest schedule in the nation.

For comparison purposes, in columns 3 and 4, I've recorded the NCAA stats for average points scored per game and average points allowed per game. Since most teams tend to play to form and only increase or decrease their effectiveness marginally from year to year, it is easy to see who the best teams will be. There is always room for a big surprise, so the previous season does not always tell the story for the current year. Thank goodness College football is not totally predictable.

Trivia Quiz: Back when I was in school, Marv Goux was the Irish killer. Playing linebacker at around 175 lbs, Marv gave the Notre Dame players so much grief that they voted him onto their "all opponent" team in two successive years. I had an expert check their media guide for SC players holding all-time Irish opponent records and found the following for this week's questions. Which SC QB holds the all-time ND opponent's record for individual passing in a single game? Second question, which SC QB is tied for the record number of TD's thrown against the Irish in a single game?

Quiz Answer: In 2002, Carson Palmer threw for 425 yards and is the single game, Notre Dame all-opponent record holder. Carson was 32 of 46 in a Coliseum game we won 44-13. Matt Leinart is one of five opponents to throw for 5 touchdowns against the Irish. He did that in 2004 in the Coliseum and we won 41-10.