After a somewhat lackluster 18-12 regular season including a 9-9 mark and a tie for fifth place in the Pac-10, the USC Trojans have the next three days during the Pac-10 Tournament to stamp a few solid wins onto their NCAA Tournament resume or perhaps string three wins together and earn an automatic bid.
In their way are a couple major problems. As in, Ursa Major.
Both the California Golden Bears and UCLA Bruins (provided UCLA beats either Washington State or Oregon) lie in the Trojans’ path to the final and only wins over both would allow USC to even enter the discussion of at-large selections into the NCAA Tournament. Obviously, a win over UCLA would go further for their cause than a victory over California, but with the Golden Bears first on the schedule, (Thursday, 6 p.m.) the Trojans can’t afford to look ahead.
USC and California split their two games this season, with both teams winning on their home court. Most recently, at Berkeley, the Trojans were able to erase a double-digit lead late in the game to send the game into overtime, where they ultimately lost, 81-78.
Both teams have played just three times since then, so neither side will need much prodding to remember the game plan.
The interesting thing with California, however, is that they’ve thrown two completely different game plans at the Trojans this season.
Earlier this season, at the Galen Center, the Bears got 34 points and 19 rebounds from center Jordan Wilkes and forward Jamal Boykin, who took 25 shots combined. It was a result of the Trojans closing down the perimeter, forcing the Bears into a two-for-16 shooting night from three-point range and limiting the top three scorers, Jerome Randle, Patrick Christopher and Theo Robertson, to just 20 points. Not surprisingly, the Trojans pulled away for a 73-62 win.
In the more recent meeting, California concentrated on getting their perimeter players going, and while Boykin and Willis combined for just 14 points on nine shots, Randle, Christopher and Robertson poured in 54 points (led by Christopher’s 29).
Defensively for the Trojans, they must find an answer for Randle, who has scored 12 and 15 points against them this season. Randle is averaging 18 points per game and is capable of lighting it up from three-point range.
“Randle has always been a challenge because of his speed, quickness and range,” Trojan head coach Tim Floyd said.
But just as important as finding a matchup for Randle is getting someone to stick with Christopher. More than likely, it will be some combination of Daniel Hackett and Dwight Lewis on Randle and Christopher, although DeMar DeRozan could also be asked to spend time on Christopher as well.
Dating back to last season, the Bears and Trojans have met four times. The teams have split the four games, but Christopher has scored 24, 24, 4 and 29 points. If the Trojans can hold him to single digits again, they should be able to walk through to the second round. If he’s in the mid-20s again, it’ll be an uphill battle.
“Christopher is a hard matchup for every team in the league,” Floyd said. “He can beat you off the dribble or with his shot.”
With Cal’s three leading scorers along the perimeter, it’s easy to understand how they are leading the country in three-point shooting percentage. For the Trojans, who struggle shooting the three pointer themselves, guarding the long-distance shot will be an absolute key to beating the Bears.
Offensively, USC has shown they can find points from a variety of places against the Bears. They had four players in double figures in the first game and got 26 and 21 points from Hackett and Taj Gibson in the second outing. The problem has come at the free throw line. The Trojans would be an easy 2-0 against the Bears this season with even mediocre free-throw performances. Instead, USC shot 17-for-29 in the first game and followed that up with a 16-for-28 showing the second time around. The Trojans have proven that they aren’t a stellar free-throw shooting team, but asking them to shoot better than 60 percent in a game isn’t unreasonable.
As for the Trojans’ mentality heading into the Tournament, they understand that their season can’t continue without at least a couple of wins.
Asked whether they’d need to win the Pac-10 Tournament as their only chance to receive a bid into the NCAA Tournament, both Hackett and Gibson agreed that they couldn’t make a prediction about the selection committee, but winning the Tournament would be a nice way to remove the guesswork.
“We’re focused on going to the Staples Center and winning one at a time,” Hackett said. “We may not have had the season that everyone expected, but we fought it and played hard. Overall, our team has made good strides. We have a good group of kids who have a lot of heart.”
“Anything can happen,” Gibson added, citing the up-and-down nature of the Pac-10 this season. “We’re going to focus on Cal and think about the next game after that.”
Floyd said he has no idea what the Trojans’ resume would need to look like in order to secure an NCAA Tournament bid, but he added that his team will approach the Pac-10 Tournament as though they have to win the entire thing.
“I think that’s the way we should approach it,” Floyd said.
The Trojans have lost to seven of the nine other conference teams this season and they likely won’t play the two teams they swept (Oregon and Washington State), but there is enough talent on the USC roster to run through this tournament (of course, there’s also been enough evidence to suggest they could allow 17 three-pointers in a 30-point blowout loss on Thursday night).
Perhaps the best response came from Hackett, when asked if he truly thought the Trojans had a chance to put three wins together this week.
“Why not?
“Our first game is against Cal, a solid team,” Hackett continued. “But if we play our basketball, we’re going to be all right.”
